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Economic Thought journal 2010 Feb; (2)
The Economic Sociology of Ivan Pososhkov (1652 - 1726)
Ivan Pososhkov (1652-1726) is the author of the first systematic economic treatise in Russia. His works are interesting due to three reasons at least. Firstly, it is worth-introducing some original non-European authors, who are often underestimated, ... expand abstractin order to determine their specific features and place in the evolution of the economic and sociological thinking, and to answer the question how much the economic and social thought reflects the characteristics of the socio-economic development and to what extent it is a result of propagation of economic ideas. Secondly, such an analysis would be of benefit not only to enrich the history of the economic and social thought, but it could also contribute to the development of the theory itself, to generate new trends for analysis (such as the Pososhkov’s case of the “power-money” relation). Thirdly, even the fact alone, that Pososhkov works in a transitional period, which is difficult for Russia (the reforms made by Peter the First), he gives valuable practical ideas for the contemporary age, for the present-day situation in Russia and for the post-Soviet period. collapse abstract
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ICER Working Papers 2010 Feb;
The Bulgarian Economic Thought since 1989: A Personal View
The objectives of this paper could be brought to three. First, a methodological one, to explain how economic knowledge disseminates and what its channels are, as well as the basic transmission mechanisms of economic theory in Bulgaria after the disin... expand abstracttegration of the socialist bloc. Second, a purely informational objective, to present the major topics and issues studied over the period 1989-2009, and, of course, the economists working on them. And a third and parallel task to interpret theoretically the development of the Bulgarian economic thought during that period, its character and specificities. collapse abstract
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ICER Working Papers 2010 Feb;
The birth of modern economic science Reading Gilles Campagnolo’s book
The 1870s have always held a special attraction for specialists in the history of thought. For economic theory these are the years of the Great Crossroads when economic theory was at critical breaking point, after which several powerful theoretical s... expand abstracttreams emerged that were to determine later on the overall course of the evolution of economics. The book by the French economist and philosopher Gilles Campagnolo is an attempt to find out exactly what happened in the years of the Great Crossroads. It offers not only factual and historical reading, but also theoretical interpretation to explaining the evolution, mutual influence and int ermingling of the above individual schools of thought in the economic science. The present paper is a review essay on Gilles Campagnolo’s new book. collapse abstract
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ICER Working Papers 2010 Feb;
The evolution of post-communist countries: An interpretation from the perspective of cooperation
How do we account for the difficulties that former socialist countries experienced in the beginning of transition? Why is it that some countries performed relatively better (the Baltic and Central European countries) than others (Bulgaria and Romania... expand abstract)? Why in the second half of 1990s, and especially immediately before the EU enlargement, almost all of the former Soviet bloc countries achieved better results? And how can we explain the problems facing the new member-states after they joined the EU and euro funds began to flow in? In short, the basic hypothesis we present is the following both the transition phases and the diversity of trajectories of post-communist countries are the result of the difference in prevailing strategic behaviours. This difference determines the models of cooperation, namely the two main archetypes that of the prisoner’s dilemma and the stag hunter, applied at the socioeconomic context of post-communist transition. These two archetypal societal models are on their part conditional on the existence of external and internal anchors. While with the prisoner’s dilemma, that became a model of total exchange under the conditions of high social heterogeneity and broken informational channels, it is profitable not to cooperate, under the stag hunter model (a model involving a common goal, a common project) advantageous in general are cooperative strategies. The various countries in different phases can be approximated to either one or the other game – the prisoner’s dilemma or the stag hunter. A shift to the cooperative game becomes possible as a result of the operation of internal or external anchors. For instance, in the beginning of the transition, with no clear vision in sight amid an outburst of large diversity of economic and social actors, and old system’s information channels falling to pieces, the appropriate analytical model to apply would be the prisoner’s dilemma. And vice versa, later on, especially when a decision was adopted to join the EU and with pre-accession chapters being opened and closed, i.e. an external anchor emerging, appropriate for analytical reasoning becomes the stag hunter game model. collapse abstract
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ICER Working Papers 2010 Feb;
Economic and Social Thoughts of Ivan Pososhkov (1652-1726)
In this paper, I will try to address some criticism to Bruno Leoni’s general theory of law and society. In his well known book Freedom and the Law (1961) –in the opinion of some Italian scholars, to be considered a libertarian Manifesto–, he stressed... expand abstract at least five main points: i) legislation is incompatible with the long-run certainty of the law, that is when the law is not properly the result of the exercise of the arbitrary will of particular men; ii) courts of justice describe or discover the law, and do not make the law; iii) courts cannot be considered as legislators, not only because of their psychological attitude towards the law, which they discover, and do not create, but above all because of their fundamental dependance on the parties concerned in their process of making the law: so, a court must not be allowed to reverse its precedents – at least to a certain extent; iv) the whole process, and so the law, can be described as a sort of vast, continuous, and chiefly spontaneous collaboration between the judges and the judged in order to discover what the people’s will is in a series of definite instances –a collaboration that in many respects may be compared to that existing among all the partecipants in a free market; v) in our time, the mechanism of the judiciary in certain countries where supreme courts are established results in the imposition of the personal views of the members of these courts, or of a majority of them: it is a somewhat contradictory introduction of the legislative process under the deceptive label of lawyers’ or judiciary law at its highest stage. It seems to me that Leoni’s theory of law and society as a normative doctrine for a «libertarian», or «post-hayekian», society is not entirely successful: in particular, topics as the relation between law and legislation, the proper sense of legal concepts (if any), and the possibility to survive for individual freedom as a non-historical but ideological concept within an open, i.e. democratic , society, will be put under scrutiny in the paper, according to Leoni’s doctrine of law as an individual claim collapse abstract
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Working paper series 2009 Feb;
Ефективност На Българската Банкова Система През Двайсетте Години На Xx Век: Приложение На Метода Dea
Изследването анализира динамиката на банковата ефективност в България през 1923 и 1928 г. Идентифицирани са няколко взаимовръзки по отношение на реакцията на различните видове банки на финансовата криза и финансовата стабилизация. За целите на изслед... expand abstractването са използвани официално публикуваните баланси и "Печалба-загуба" на 50 български кредитни институции. Приложени са различни вариации на подхода DEA (data envelopment analysis), след като е направена групировка на кредитни институции по определени критерии. Приложен е т.нар. подход на посредничеството по отношение на финансовата позиция на банковите институции. Методът DEA позволява да се преодолеят няколко недостатъка на традиционните счетоводни показатели за банкова ефективност, което го налага все повече в съвременните изследвания. Доколкото ни е известно,този метод не е бил прилаган до настоящия момент за исторически данни. Резултатите от изследването показват, че се наблюдава "изравняване" на ефективността в края на 20-те години, в сравнение с началната дата на анализ (1923 г.), което говори за по-високата конкуренция в края на 20-те години. Въпреки това, БНБ е една от най-ефективните банки, тя почти винаги е на границата на ефективност, което в определен смисъл е илюстрация за нарушенията на принципите на свободна конкуренция. collapse abstract
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Working paper series 2009 Feb;
Паричните Режими В Посткомунистическите Страни. Дългосрочни Перспективи
В статията е предложен опит за типологизация на еволюцията на паричните режими в посткомунистическите страни (1990-2008 г.), които по своя характер са изключително разнообразни. Обособени са две големи групи – тип 1 – страни, които започват реформите... expand abstract с режим на фиксиран валутен курс и преобладаване на външните източници на парично предлагане, и тип 2 – страни, започнали реформите с режим на плаващ курс и преобладаващи вътрешни източници на парично предлагане. Първият тип е значително по-успешен и по-подходящ за преодоляване на проблемите на прехода. Предложени са и други елементи на типологизация, основани на специфични дефиниции на паричната система и паричния режим. Представени са различните подходи, които могат да обяснят наблюдаваната еволюция на паричните режими в бившите социалистически страни. collapse abstract
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Working paper series 2009 Feb;
Monetary Regimes in Post-Communist Countries. Some Long-Term Reflections
This article offers an attempt at typologisation of the evolution of monetary regimes in post-communist countries (1990-2008), which is exceptionally varied by character. Two large groups have emerged: type 1 – countries, which started their reforms ... expand abstractwith a regime of fixed exchange rate and dominating external sources of money supply, and type 2 – countries starting their reforms with a floating exchange rate and predominating internal sources of money supply. The first type is much more successful and appropriate for managing the problems of transition. Some other elements of typologisation have also been suggested based on specific definitions of monetary system and monetary regime. The article also presents various approaches, which can explain the evolution of monetary regimes observed in the former socialist countries. collapse abstract
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ICER Working Papers 2009 Feb;
Efficiency of commercial banks in Bulgaria in the wake of EU accession
The paper examines the efficiency of Bulgarian banks and its determinants over the period 1999- 2007. The levels of technical, allocative, and cost efficiency are first estimated using a nonparametric methodology and then regressed upon a number of b... expand abstractank-specific, institutional, and EU-related factors. The findings indicate that foreign banks were more efficient than domestic private banks, although the gap between them narrowed over time. State-owned banks ranked last on average but their privatization resulted in efficiency gains. Capitalization, liquid ity, and enterprise restructuring enhanced bank efficiency, while banking reforms had an adverse effect. The Treaty of Accession and EU membership were associated with significant efficiency improvements. collapse abstract
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ICER Working Papers 2009 Feb;
On Money as an Institution
In this paper I am going to explore some of the major theoretical concepts and ideas in Luca Fantacci’s work devoted to the history of money. As a historical check on Fantacci’s theory I will present various moments in Russian monetary history interp... expand abstractreted in the light of the ideas of the La moneta: storia di un’instituzione mancata. I will compare Fantacci’s theory of division between the unit of account and the medium of exchange with those of Walther Eucken and the Austrian School as well as of some other contemporary authors. A new institutional reading of the evolution of money “money as an institutional compound” is proposed. collapse abstract
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ICER Working Papers 2008 Feb;
Efficiency of the Bulgarian Banking System: Traditional Approach and Data Envelopment Analysis
The present paper traces the trends in the development of the Bulgarian banking system focusing on the dynamics of bank efficiency. Although the financial crisis in 1996-1997 and the following shift in monetary regime (introduction of Currency Board ... expand abstractArrangement) exerted significant influence on the development of the banking sector characteristics, the study covers only the period of 1999-2006 because of the lack of consistent available data prior to 1999. During the period analysed, the impact on bank efficiency of the following factors is studied: change in property, penetration of foreign commercial banks on the local banking market, competition, structure of bank assets and liabilities, central bank policy in regard to credit activity, etc. The limits of traditional accounting approaches to bank efficiency evaluation are discussed, as well as the implementation of non-parametric methods, in particular Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). Different specifications of DEA like the intermediation and operating approaches were applied to separate groups and sub-groups. The results show that: firstly, foreign banks perform better than domestic and state-owned banks because of the technological and managerial improvements; and secondly, large banks are more efficient than small banks due to decreasing operating costs and scale economies. collapse abstract
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Working Papers 2008 Feb;
The Evolution of Bulgarian Banks' Efficiency During the Twenties: A Dea Approach
This paper studies the dynamics of the bank efficiency in Bulgaria in the years 1923 and 1928. In the course of research several interdependencies were detected, related mainly to the reaction of different types of banks to the financial crisis and t... expand abstracthe financial stabilization. Official bank balance sheets were used as well as the profit and loss statements of 50 Bulgarian credit institutions. After their classification into subgroups different variations of DEA (data envelopment analysis), in particular the intermediation approach, were applied to the banks’ financial positions. The DEA overcomes several deficiencies in the traditional accounting measurement of bank efficiency, which has made it very popular in latest literature. To our knowledge this method has not been applied so far to historical data. collapse abstract
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Economic Thought journal 2007 Feb; (4)
Dynamics of the Financial Wealth of the Institutional Sectors in Bulgaria for the Period 1990 – 2005
The transitional period is always connected to redistribution processes and change in the financial wealth of the economic agents. The examination of the redistribution of wealth and its dynamics is important related to the possibilities for a more c... expand abstractomplete study and rationalization of the changes that occurred in the economy. In this connection the dynamics of financial wealth of the institutional sectors in Bulgaria for the period 1990 – 2005 is assessed and analyzed. The main net creditors and debtors to the economy are differentiated and their behavior before and after the change of the monetary regime is examined. Econometric simulations are made on the main factors that determine the shift in the sector financial wealth. In the progress of the expose grounded is the hypothesis (which to a great extent is confirmed by the empirical results) for a functional relation between the dynamics of redistribution and the change of the monetary regime. collapse abstract
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William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2007 Feb;
Dynamics of the Financial Wealth of the Institutional Sectors in Bulgaria: Empirical Studies of the Post-Communist Period
The question of who benefits and who loses from the transition, the channels and mechanisms of redistribution of wealth in the post-communist period, and the relation between redistribution and monetary regime are, in our opinion, fundamental in unde... expand abstractrstanding theoretically the deep systemic changes in Eastern Europe. This article has two basic tasks – one empirical and one theoretical. Our empirical task is to analyse the dynamics of the financial wealth of the institutional sectors in Bulgaria in the period 1998-2005 and to identify the major net creditors and net debtors. The empirical data used for the purpose are based on adapted methodology for the financial account of the Bulgarian economy according to the requirements of the System of National Accounts (SNA). Econometric simulations have been carried out of the major factors conditioning the change in the sectoral financial wealth. The empirical investigations are given in Part 3. Our theoretical task is to prove the hypothesis (which is to a large extent supported by the empirical results) about the functional relationship between the dynamics of redistribution and the change in monetary regime. This is presented in Part 2 and is discussed in Part 4. collapse abstract
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ICER Working Papers 2007 Feb;
Exchange Control in Italy and Bulgaria in the Interwar Period: History and Perspectives
This paper analyses exchange rate control measures adopted in Italy and Bulgaria during the interwar period. The first two sections provide a detailed account of the institutional and economic framework in which these measures were enforced and inter... expand abstractpret them utilizing statistical data. In the third section it suggests a theoretical interpretation of exchange control and clearing agreements stressing that these policies were a serious interference in market mechanisms. A further point is that exchange control introduced and practiced in Italy and Bulgaria was an eloquent example of how serious the balance of payments constraint was at that time and how difficult it was to circumvent it. In the last section it derives some lessons for today’s Italian and Bulgarian economies. collapse abstract
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Economic Thought journal 2006 Feb; (1)
New View of Contemporary Europe
REFERENCE to Laslo Csaba. The New Political Economy of Emerging Europe. Budapest, Akademia Kiado, 2005, 359 ñ.
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William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2006 Feb;
Convergence and shocks in the road to EU: Empirical investigations for Bulgaria and Romania
Despite their progress Bulgaria and Romania significantly differ from the EU economies. In this article, on the basis of the theoretical and empirical achievements of the theory of optimal and (endogenous) currency areas we study to what extent the t... expand abstractwo South European economies are able to adopt the common economic (and above all monetary) policy of the EU, and to what extent the convergence to the EU stimulates the economic development of these countries. Despite the similarities, the two countries now differ fundamentally in their choice of a monetary regime – while Romania uses inflation targeting and a flexible exchange rate, Bulgaria has adopted a currency board regime. For this purpose we analyze: (i) the degree of nominal, real and financial convergence and synchronization of the economic cycle with that of the European Union (using unconditional ß convergence approach). Income and price levels, inflation rate, interest rate, monetary aggregates, credit, productivity etc. are among the studied variables; (ii) the resistance to different external and internal shocks (using VAR model) as well as (iii) the mechanisms for balancing and absorption of these shocks. To give a better comparative picture we compose the panel including Hungary and Czech Republic. collapse abstract
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ICER Working Papers 2006 Feb;
Monetary Convergence on the Road to EMU: Conceptual Issues for Eastern Europe
Traditional monetary and economic convergence in accordance with the Optimal Currency Areas model has a number of limitations. Above all, it fails to assess the state of formal and informal monetary institutions. Adequate for an industrial society, i... expand abstractt does not address the change to a globalising information society, being mainly quantitative, aggregated, and generally mechanical. This removes it from reality, though keeping it close to a quantitative presentation. It fails to take into account invisible threats to convergence and East European country realities involving informal monetary institutions and differences in institutional development. Monetary regime efficiency is judged solely by Maastricht criteria fulfilment. These limitations may be overcome in two ways. The first is to take into account the institutional aspect of money, enabling discussion of institutional monetary convergence. The second way is to adopt institutional monetary competition, allowing at least some institutional competition in EEC monetary regimes in the run up to euro adoption and possibly allowing the euro to circulate in parallel with national currencies. collapse abstract
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ICER Working Papers 2006 Feb;
Exchange Rate and Inflation: France and Bulgaria in the Interwar Period
The objective of this paper is twofold. First, to compare the model of financial stabilization in the interwar period in France (a country in the “core”) with that in Bulgaria (a peripheral country). Second, applying modern econometric techniques (VA... expand abstractR models) we would like to “test “whether the theory designating a dominant role of the exchange rate on inflation (in comparison to that of money in circulation) holds and can be empirically proved by the actual movement of the monetary variables and the direction of their causality. Going back to the history of stabilization in France and Bulgaria in the interwar period and studying it through the theoretical ideas at the beginning of the XX century would provide us not only with new elements in the analysis of the present-day problems of monetary stabilizations but also add to the arguments of the crucial significance of the exchange rate and monetary rules for the efficiency and credibility of the monetary regime. collapse abstract
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ICER Working Papers 2006 Feb;
Lenin and the Currency Competition Reflections on the NEP Experience
Institutional competition stirs the interest of economists following a certain cyclical pattern. In this context, it is very interesting to look back at the experience of Lenin and the Bolsheviks of adopting monetary competition to stabilize their po... expand abstractlitical and economic power after the crash of the war communism (and the attempts to annihilate money). The currency competition lasts less than two years and ends up with establishing the chervonetz as the only monetary unit. As a whole, this can be considered a successful economic experience. Nevertheless, the main conditions for effective institutional competition were not met – the two currencies were unequally positioned and, what is more, the institutional complementarity principle was not present. Other basic market institutions were lacking or much diminished in functions – mostly the property rights, the principle of free price setting as well as competition in the political and ideological sphere. In general, the NEP model is utterly controversial and its market structure is to a great extent false. This is what actually doomed monetary stability afterwards and left no room for money competition to spread its wings. Despite all these shortcomings, even in its reduced form, the monetary competition, gives a number of positive, though only temporary, results. This reveals the presence of purely technological characteristics of currency competition related to the behavior of money users. In part one we remind briefly of the chronology of events in the first years of the Bolshevik’s regime; part two shows the dynamics of currency competition between the sovznak and the chervonetz, and in the last part we attempt to draw some theoretical observations related to the necessary conditions for a successful institutional competition. collapse abstract
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Post-Print 2005 Feb;
Confiance et ajustement dans les régimes d'étalon-or et de caisse d'émission
Les régimes de caisse d'émission et d'étalon-or sont souvent assimilés, étant considérés comme des règles monétaires contraignantes, dont les deux caractéristiques essentielles sont la crédibilité des autorités monétaires et l'existence d'un mécanism... expand abstracte d'ajustement automatique (non discrétionnaire). Cet article présente une analyse comparative de ces deux régimes (1) du point de vue des sources de la confiance, à savoir la convertibilité, l'endogénéité et le contexte internationale, et (2) en regardant le fonctionnement du mécanisme d'ajustement, plus spécifiquement l'environnement financier, l'automatisme et l'asymétrie. collapse abstract
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Economic Thought journal 2004 Feb; (3)
Elements of Hayeks Monetary Theory
The monetary theory (theory of money order), which is an integral part of Haieks views on order, has not been sufficiently popularized among Bulgarian readers. When it is referred to, the following are usually mentioned, without going into detail: mo... expand abstractnetary explanation of crises and cycles, the explanation of prices as transmission of knowledge and information and, of course, the “exotic idea” of private competitive money. The present article is an attempt to partly reinstate the “technical aspects’ of Haiek’s monetary theory. collapse abstract
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Economic Studies journal 2004 Feb; (3)
Dynamics of the Inter-Bank Market in Bulgaria
In the last years the effectiveness and the presence of automated mechanism of adjusting, the currency boards are in the center of many economic analyses. The current study will present an empirical analysis of the volume and interest rate on the non... expand abstract-covered one-day deposits of the Bulgarian inter-bank market. Developed are three empirical models in order to explain the behavior of the demand, supply and the interest rates. Studied are the influence of the requirements on the obligatory reserves of the trade banks; the operations connected with the state budget; the deals in reserve currency between the banks and BNB; and some season factors. The behavior of the interest rates and the volume of deposits are well ranged by the variables used. The coefficients, which describe the influence of these variables, are statistically significant and have the same direction as the described in the theoretical literature. collapse abstract
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William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2004 Feb;
Measuring the Institutional Change of the Monetary Regime in a Political Economy Perspective (Groups of interest and monetary variables during the Currency Board introduction in Bulgaria)
The paper explores the possibilities to measure the institutional change in the monetary field. A political economy theoretical framework is built up, where the change of the monetary regime is analyzed as the outcome of the debtors - creditors inter... expand abstractactions. In this perspective, the value of some traditional monetary variables during the period before and after the introduction of the Currency Board in Bulgaria, in 1997, reveals the main actors' evolving relative positions. collapse abstract
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William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2004 Feb;
Money Market Liquidity under Currency Board – Empirical Investigations for Bulgaria
Over the last years the efficiency and existence of an automatic adjustment mechanism of currency boards are in the centre of economic discussions. This study is intended to provide an empirical analysis of the volume and interest rate of unsecured o... expand abstractvernight deposits at Bulgarian interbank market. Three empirical models are developed in order to explain the behaviour of demand, supply and interest rates. The impact of reserve requirements, operations connected with government budget, transactions in reserve currency (Euro) and some seasonal factors is discussed. The developments of interest rates and volumes are well captured by the employed variables and their statistically significant signs coincide with the theoretical literature. collapse abstract
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